Origin
Arises from Executive Judgment Under Complexity and the Judgment Pyramid.
Core Idea
Foresight is usually treated as a forward-looking activity. It is more reliably a backward- and inward-looking one first: leaders who see ahead well are generally those who have examined their own past reasoning honestly. Reflection is not a pause from foresight — it is its method.
Strategic Significance
It changes what a leadership team does with the time it sets aside for strategy: less forecasting, more examination of the judgments that produced the present situation.